Long-term bitcoin exposure, actively managed to reduce downside volatility. A discretionary, rules-based mandate from one of Europe's most cited bitcoin research teams.
Performance results consist of backtested returns and the hypothetical performance of portfolio allocations based on the research team's BTC market views since February 2023. Hypothetical results do not represent actual trading and are subject to significant limitations. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Since inception the strategy has compounded well ahead of bitcoin with a higher Sharpe and shallower drawdowns. Through the 2025–26 drawdown its mandate has done its job, cushioning losses relative to a fully invested bitcoin allocation. All figures are net of fees.
Since inception (Feb 2023), net of fees, rebased to 0%. Weekly.
Net of 25bps per-side trading fees and a 2.5% annual cash yield on any non-BTC allocation. K33 Active reflects a portfolio paper-traded on K33's market assessments since 2023, not live trading.
K33 Active Bitcoin, net of assumed fees.
Net-of-fees statistics since inception (Feb 2023 — Jun 2026) versus a passive bitcoin benchmark.
Assumed trading fee: 25bps. K33 Active reflects the results of a backtested trading strategy and does not represent actual trading activity.
The strategy begins fully allocated to bitcoin and reduces exposure only when risk assessments support it, always retaining a core position.
Remain primarily fully exposed to bitcoin while keeping the flexibility to reduce exposure, protecting capital and seeking outperformance during market downturns.
Bitcoin is treated as a growth asset with a positive long-term trend, but characterised by high volatility and periodic deep corrections.
The primary risk is exposure to bitcoin itself. Cash allocations serve as a risk-mitigation tool during select periods. The strategy targets roughly 80% of bitcoin's volatility.
For long-term investors with high risk tolerance who want bitcoin exposure but value downside protection during periods of market imbalance.
Bitcoin exposure ranges between 50% and 100% of assets under management. Allocations below 100% must be supported by risk assessments and reviewed continuously. At least 50% bitcoin exposure must be maintained at the end of each month — a structural feature ensuring significant exposure at all times.
Measurable signals are aggregated into a model score that informs allocation. Changes in factor thresholds trigger adjustments in bitcoin exposure; some variables require qualitative interpretation by the manager.
One of Europe's most prominent bitcoin analysts, with a proven ability to navigate complex market conditions. For over five years he has led the production of market-leading analyses used by banks, asset managers, and institutions worldwide.
Deep expertise across the derivatives market, ETF flows, and on-chain data — synthesised into clear strategic recommendations. He has developed proprietary models for positioning, risk management, and sentiment analysis, with particular strength in identifying market turning points and asymmetric risk/reward.
K33 combines best execution and market access with a research division recognised for data-driven analysis of bitcoin and the broader crypto macro landscape. As a publicly listed company, K33 maintains robust frameworks for compliance, risk management, and transparency.
Weekly market updates blend quantitative analysis, macro context, and on-chain metrics. Readers include global investment banks, market makers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, academic institutions, and central banks — with consulting collaborations including LMAX and Bitstamp.
A selection of the manager's public, time-stamped market calls and how they played out.
"After selling the inauguration, I've gradually added exposure in the lower 80s and higher 70s." Identified $75K–$88K as a strong accumulation range, noting long-term fundamentals favor spot accumulation despite near-term tariff uncertainty.
✓ BTC recovered from $75K lows View evidence →Called to sell ahead of Trump's January 20 inauguration, predicting the "Trump trade" momentum would exhaust. Warned that implementing policy promises requires political processes that would disappoint euphoric expectations.
✓ BTC dropped 30% from ATH post-inauguration View evidence →Predicted Bitcoin could see a 130–150% rally in the year following the halving, targeting $125,000–$150,000 by 2025.
✓ BTC hit $126K ATH in Oct 2025 View evidence →Declared the market was wrong and dramatically underestimated the impact of U.S. BTC ETFs. Predicted 70,000+ BTC inflows and a 66% rally to $42,000 when BTC traded near $26,000.
✓ ETFs launched Jan 2024, BTC rallied 300%+ View evidence →Two windows from the strategy's paper-traded record, illustrating the two ways allocation decisions are made: discretionary calls where the manager's interpretation of an event overrides what the data alone supports, and model-driven adjustments where the multi-factor framework's risk signals set the weighting.
In late August 2023, Grayscale won its lawsuit against the SEC, materially strengthening the odds of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF approval ahead of the January 2024 deadline. Bitcoin did not react, trading near six-month lows around $26,100.
The quantitative framework alone did not support aggressive upweighting at this point. The manager's interpretation of the event did, and the strategy moved to full allocation at $25,816, ahead of a strong upturn as the ETF trade repriced through Q4.
View evidence →In contrast to the discretionary call above, each adjustment in this window was driven by the multi-factor model: changes in derivatives, flow, and on-chain readings crossing risk thresholds triggered the weighting steps below.
Daily closes from the strategy workbook, Mar 20 to Jul 31, 2024. Allocation decisions reflect the paper-traded strategy record, not live client trading.
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